marine weather discussion NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2008

Marine weather discussion for Gulf of Mexico... Caribbean Sea and southwest north Atlc S of 31n W of 55w.

Radiofax schedule for graphical wind wave...surface forecast and peak wave period charts has changed. For the Atlantic Basin this includes 24...36...48 and 72 hour wind wave..24...48..72 hour surface forecast and 48 and 72 hour peak wave period charts. For additional information please refer to the fax schedule on the NHC web site at http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/radiofax.Shtml

Gulf of Mexico... the models have come into better agreement with the timing of the cold front moving into the NW Gulf Mon afternoon...with the GFS trending toward the slower ECMWF timing. Confidence has now increased in the GFS scenario which was relied upon for the forecast...with the boundary passing se through the Gulf Mon afternoon through Tue night/Wed morning before dissipating Wed. Expect this front to be weaker than the front that passed through the Gulf over the past 24 hours. Observations in the western Gulf already show winds subsiding to 20 kt and below and turning more S of E. The stronger winds...over 20 kt...can primarily be found over the eastern and S central Gulf...with a Gale Warning currently posted for Yucatan Channel. These winds should be coming down overnight tonight as the cold front dissipates over the souther Gulf.

Atlc and Caribbean... a weak tropical wave lies along 65w and is expected to slowly make its way W past 70w sun toward 75w Tue morning. A persistent...broad mid level troughing between 50w and 65w will impede the west motion of the system. The cold front currently stretch across the SW N Atlc zone through the central Bahamas into northern Cuba will pass northeast of the tropical wave sun...with the cold front expected to be reinvigorated by mid latitude shortwave energy N of the area sun and form a surface wave E of the area on Mon. The models differ and the strength and timing of this shortwave energy and the surface wave....with the GFS the deepest solution with the surface low. Adjusted toward a weaker surface low here which also meant weakening the wind and wave fields over the far E part of the SW N Atlc zone mainly on Mon. Another cold front is expected to pass from the Gulf of Mexico into the NW part of the SW N Atlc zone by Tue and weaken Wed as it encounters the ridging between it and the low E of the area.

Atlantic... none.

Caribbean... Gale Warning Yucatan Channel N of 21n W od 85w...amz082

Gulf of Mexico... none.

Forecaster schauer Clark. Tropical Prediction Center.