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marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC
1110 am PST Sat 22 Nov 2008
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant
.Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
Summary...the upr lvl flow will amplify ovr the region during the
next few days. An upr lvl trof along 150w is movg E. It is
expected to split with some of the energy movg E to NE and the
rest of it heading to the se...to the W of the off wtrs early in
the wk. A cut-off low is expected to dvlp W of the central cal
off wtrs Mon. This upr lvl low will slwly move E ovr the srn
central cal off wtrs Tue...finally movg inland late Wed...with an
upr lvl ridge building ovr the wtrs behind the upr lvl low late
Wed. The next upr lvl low will head E into the region Thu...with
a wide array of mdl solutions by ltr Thu into next wknd.
Models...for the most part we will stay close to the 12z GFS mdl
guid for much of this package...as it will allow US to pretty
much leave the prev fcst unchanged. We do believe that the 12z
operational GFS is a little too deep with the sfc reflection of
the upr lvl low noted above by 48 hrs...as the operational run is
the deepest of the GFS ensemble members. The 12z ECMWF offers a
good Middle Range solution as it's track/speed of the low is
similar to the GFS...but wkr...more like most of the GFS ens
members.
Headlines...we will maintain gales for pz5 wtrs ovrngt into early
sun ngt for wash wtrs...and for NW oreg off wtrs sun...similar to
what was indicated in the prev fcst. Otw...we will lv the minimal
gales for far wrn pz5 wtrs ltr Wed...which may need to be pushed
back to Wed ngt/early Thu in later fcst packages...as the next
strong front heads E toward the region. The gales should end
during Thu as wkng low pres moves into the pz5 wtrs. Otw...altho
gales are lkly with the sfc low passing just W of the wtrs sun
ngt into Tue...these gale force winds will lkly remain W of the
off wtrs in the strong caa W of the sfc low. By the time the low
crosses srn central cal off wtrs lt Tue/Wed it will lkly be
wkng...so no gales are fcst.
Seas...the 12z mww3 version of the wave watch iii mdl appears to
be within a ft or two of the latest obs across the off wtrs. We
will stay fairly close to its guid for most of this fcst...except
with regard to srn central and nrn socal off wtrs Tue into Wed
as the GFS is going stronger with the low crossing those wtrs.
Since we are thinking that this low may be a little wkr than what
the 12z GFS is showing...we will subtract a couple ft ovr these
wtrs Tue into Wed from the 12z wave watch mdl.
.Warnings/forecast confidence...Preliminary. Any changes will be
coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters...
.Cape Flattery to Cape Lookout...gale tonite into sun nite...MDT
confdc. Gale lt Wed/early Thu W part...low confdc.
.Cape Lookout to point St George...Gale sun...MDT confdc. Gale
lt Wed/early Thu far NW...low confdc.
.Pz6 California waters...
.Pt St George to pt Arena...none.
.Pt Arena to pt Conception...None.
.Pt Conception to Guadalupe island...None.
.Forecaster Mills. Ocean forecast branch.
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